There are, says Tom Greatrex, the CEO of the Nuclear Industry Association, “plenty of people” in the SNP who back new nuclear power. “They completely understand the value that comes from nuclear, both in terms of the amount of clean electricity and also the jobs, skills, and supply chain opportunities that come with it. “But it is almost totemic within the internal politics of the SNP to be against it.” The SNP’s position on nuclear power has been pretty consistent over the last six decades. In the 1960s, they became a new home for disillusioned anti-nuclear Labour activists which helped steer them towards playing a significant part in the broad coalition of groups who protested against Torness in the 70s. In their first stint in government, Jim Mather, the then minister for enterprise, energy and tourism cemented the Scottish Government’s anti-nuclear power stance, firmly establishing that while energy is largely reserved to the UK Government, planning is largely devolved. “If an application were to be submitted for a new nuclear power station that will be for Scottish ministers to determine,” he told MSPs in 2008. “We would be obliged to look at it – but given our policy position, our generating capacity, our multiplicity of energy sources and our strong alternative strategies such an application would be unlikely to find favour with this administration.”
It’s a position which John Swinney made “crystal clear” on Thursday has not changed and will not change while his party is in government. That means nuclear power will be on the ballot paper at next year’s election. “We will end the ideological block to zero-carbon nuclear energy,” Anas Sarwar told MSPs during First Minister’s Questions. The SNP government is, he argued, “holding Scotland back.”
New nuclear seems to be having a bit of a moment right now, particularly around small modular reactors (SMRs). Their supporters say these heat pump-sized reactors are efficient, safe, (relatively) cheap, and capable of powering entire cities for up to a decade with minimal maintenance and waste. Their critics say their economic viability remains unproven, the technology is still developing, and while they produce less waste, they still produce waste. Nevertheless, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting surge in energy prices have led to a number of countries looking again at nuclear and SMRs in particular. In France — where nuclear provides roughly 70% of the country’s electricity — the government has dropped plans to reduce its own reliance on nuclear energy and is now looking to build up to eight new reactors. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has promised a “Golden Era of American Energy Dominance,” signing an executive order commanding the US to “lead the commercialisation of affordable and abundant nuclear energy”. He’s hoping to catch up with the Chinese. It’s not just the US and China pouring billions into SMR development, Google is too. AI relies on data and data centres need constant electricity.
Recent research by Barclay suggested data centres account for 3.5% of electricity consumption in the US. That figure could rise to more than 9% by the end of the decade. Last year, Google signed the “world’s first corporate agreement to purchase nuclear energy from multiple small modular reactors, to be developed by Kairos Power”. Is Scotland going to miss out here? Greatrex, a former Labour MP, believes the SNP’s opposition to nuclear power is linked to their position on the constitution.
“They seem quite content for the lifetime of Torness to be extended, as it was just before Christmas, for a couple of years. “Obviously everything the SNP do is about gestures. It’s easy for them to have a gesture that, I think, is misreading of the public mood, but is their reading of it, which is that nuclear is something that you can present as being unpopular, and present it almost as though it’s something that’s done to Scotland against its will, which obviously suits a wider grievance objective.” During First Minister’s Questions, one of the arguments against new nuclear marshalled by John Swinney was that he needed to “provide absolute policy certainty so that investors can invest in the technologies that come forward”. Backing nuclear would “create the impression that renewable energy is not delivering formidably for Scotland,” “muddy the waters” and “add uncertainty”. Greatrex describes that position as “completely incoherent”. “Any credible analysis of how you get to net zero demonstrates a need for some low carbon power, ie, that which isn’t really impacted by the weather, and at the moment, that’s nuclear. “There’s a fundamental dishonesty and the SNP position is in that at times when it isn’t windy they’re quite content for Scotland to be powered by nuclear power that might come from England through the grid.”
The irony here is that a party striving for Scottish independence will likely need to rely on nuclear energy generated elsewhere in the UK.